Following the signing of a 60-day interim navigation memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, the Hormuz Strait has shifted from a total shutdown to a model of “limited recovery and cautious passage.”
According to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), approximately 70 commercial vessels passed through the strait under US escort within 72 hours from July 2nd to 4th. The average daily passage of bulk carriers is about 34, recovering to roughly 30% to 60% of pre-conflict levels (100-138 vessels per day), which is still significantly low.
On July 3rd and 4th, at least eight merchant ships preparing to transit via the Oman side (southern route) suddenly turned around near the Musandam Peninsula, with some diverting to the northern “Larak Corridor” designated by Iran. This reflects shipowners’ concerns over the parallel control systems. Currently, the US Navy is leading the opening of a widened transit corridor with limited escort provided by the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC). Vessels must pass according to designated routes and security procedures; while “technically open,” it is not yet fully free for navigation.
Residual safety risks remain, including thousands of uncleared mines in the strait. The reliability of intelligent mine-sweeping systems is relatively low due to poor summer visibility.
Although the risks of GPS jamming and drone/speedboat harassment have decreased compared to the peak of the conflict, they have not been completely eliminated, prompting some shipowners to require additional security personnel on board.
War risk insurance premiums peaked at 5% to 10% of the hull value during the height of the conflict; after the ceasefire, they fell back to about 2%, but this is still nearly 20 times the normal annual rate (<0.1%). In extreme cases, quotes from the London market remain close to peak levels.
Daily charter rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) on the Middle East-Asia route once soared to $495,000 (nearly nine times the base rate) and remain elevated despite a slight retreat. Shipowners generally indicate that the key issue is not “whether they can pass,” but rather when the transit efficiency and comprehensive costs will return to pre-war levels.
There are currently three de facto parallel routes in the strait: the southern route near Oman (coordinated by the US/Oman), the central commonly used route, and the northern route controlled by Iran (Larak Corridor). The points of contention are clear:
Iran has repeatedly stated that merchant ships must use routes designated and authorized by Iran, and is formulating the “Hormuz Strait Environmental Service Fee Regulations,” planning to charge transit ships for security and environmental services. In contrast, the international shipping community regards Hormuz as an international navigable waterway that should not be subject to unilateral new restrictions or mandatory charges.
The US and Iran are still advancing negotiations for a final agreement, but there are obvious differences regarding the management of the strait and subsequent shipping arrangements. The interim MOU is valid for about 60 days (expected to expire in mid-to-late August); if it is not renewed or upgraded to a formal agreement, regulatory uncertainty will rise again.
Under normal circumstances, about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products (accounting for about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade) and about 18% of global LNG pass through Hormuz daily.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE have increased their crude oil shipments, improving market supply and causing Brent crude to fall back to the $70 range per barrel, partially clearing geopolitical risk premiums. However, the combination of incomplete traffic recovery, high freight rates, and high insurance premiums leaves the supply chain vulnerable—any setbacks in US-Iran negotiations or sporadic attacks could trigger a rapid rebound in oil prices and shipping costs.
Analysts believe that the significance of the Hormuz Strait lies not only in the number of tankers passing through daily but also in its psychological endorsement of the stability of the global energy supply chain. The transition from “total interruption to limited recovery” marks important progress, but there is still a considerable distance from returning to normal commercial operations.
Future recovery will continue to be driven by three factors: regional security situations, shipowners’ risk appetite, and the progress of US-Iran negotiations and whether the interim navigation framework is extended.
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Post time: Jul-09-2026
