The freight‑rate surge driven by pre‑deadline shipments to beat U.S. tariffs, which began in mid‑April, started losing momentum in early July — freight rates stopped climbing. Yet just as the industry widely expected shipping rates to trend downward or even plunge sharply, freight rates for Europe and North America have remained range‑bound at high levels over the past one‑and‑a‑half months, with rates for the U.S. trades repeatedly hitting new highs in this period.
This has left the industry grappling with a common puzzle: why have ocean freight rates failed to fall?
According to the latest report from Yi Shipping, a confluence of factors — low water levels in the Panama Canal, high‑temperature disruptions in Europe, drought‑related constraints on the Rhine Canal, port strikes across Europe, the dual‑strait crisis in the Middle East, and port congestion, vessel schedule delays and supply‑chain disruptions triggered by three successive major typhoons hitting China — are continuously eroding global container shipping capacity. This stands as one key reason behind the stubbornly high freight rates.
Data from Sea‑Intelligence shows that global liner schedule reliability dropped to 62.6 % in June 2026, down 1.9 percentage points from May and well below the pre‑pandemic normal range of 70 %‑80 % recorded between 2011 and 2019. Meanwhile, the average delay for late‑arriving vessels stood at 5.31 days, notably higher than the pre‑pandemic level of 3‑4 days.
This means a growing number of vessels, while nominally part of the global fleet, cannot commence their subsequent voyages as scheduled. Based on Sea‑Intelligence’s calculations, roughly 5 % of global container‑ship capacity — equivalent to around 1.7 million TEU — was “locked up” by schedule delays in June 2026.
In practical terms, the global shipping market has effectively lost about 1.7 million TEU of usable capacity.
More notably, against a pre‑pandemic baseline delay level of around 2.2 %, structural deterioration in schedule performance has caused an extra loss of roughly 1.06 million TEU of effective capacity. That figure is nearly equal to the total capacity of HMM, the world’s eighth‑largest container liner, at approximately 1.038 million TEU.
The scale of the problem becomes even more striking when incorporating Yang Ming Marine Transport, the world’s ninth‑ranked liner.
As of June 2026, HMM operated about 1.038 million TEU of container capacity and Yang Ming roughly 742 000 TEU, bringing their combined capacity to some 1.78 million TEU.
Put another way, the approximately 1.7 million‑TEU capacity shortfall stemming from vessel delays is comparable to the entire combined fleet of HMM and Yang Ming.
This explains why freight rates have not tumbled in line with conventional supply‑demand logic, even as the global container fleet keeps expanding and new ships keep being delivered.
A report from Linerlytics notes that typhoons battering China’s eastern coast triggered port congestion across North Asia, stranding container vessels representing over 2.4 million TEU. This tropical storm was the third and most powerful to hit China in five weeks, forcing vessels to reroute to avoid the storm track. Vessel delays are expected to persist for an extended period, with Ningbo and Shanghai the hardest‑hit ports; terminal operations were suspended on August 7‑8. Congestion has also spread to southern Chinese ports, and clearing the vessel backlog will take weeks.
On paper, the global fleet keeps growing. In operational reality, however, widespread port congestion, route diversions, geopolitical tensions and inland‑transport bottlenecks are slowing vessel turnaround cycles. A five‑day delay for one vessel may push back the start of its next voyage accordingly. The end result is a paradox: the fleet keeps getting bigger, yet usable capacity fails to expand in tandem.
Sea‑Intelligence previously observed that vessel delays absorbed an average of 5.3 % of global capacity between 2023 and 2026, leaving the market with a persistent “missing” capacity pool of roughly 1.8 million TEU. Of that volume, about 1.06 million TEU represents excess loss above pre‑pandemic norms. The consultancy argues that structural declines in schedule reliability have effectively removed a fleet the size of HMM from active service on a long‑term basis.
Meanwhile, the 2026 shipping market faces an even more complex external landscape. The Red‑Sea crisis has not fully returned to normal operations, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting global trade lanes and energy shipments. Numerous vessels have been forced to alter their routes, further lengthening sailing durations and vessel turnaround times.
Port‑side pressures also persist. Sustained robust export volumes out of Asia keep major ports congested, increasing vessel waiting times. Bottlenecks at ports, drayage, rail and warehousing ripple through the entire supply chain.
Accordingly, the critical metric for the market is not how many ships exist worldwide, but how much capacity can actually be deployed on time and as planned.
From this perspective, the 1.7 million TEU of capacity swallowed up by schedule delays constitutes a hidden supply gap in today’s global shipping market.
This resolves the apparent contradiction: even as global fleet size hits successive record highs, freight rates remain remarkably resilient.
Until port congestion, route diversions and vessel delays see meaningful improvement, newly delivered tonnage risks being partially offset by longer sailing and turnaround cycles. For shippers, freight rates are ultimately determined not by how many ships carriers own, but by how much physical space is genuinely available for booking at any given moment.
Viewed through the lens of effective usable capacity, the global shipping market is functionally missing a carrier the size of HMM — or nearly the combined capacity of HMM plus Yang Ming.
This may well be one of the core reasons why global container freight rates have resisted downward pressure throughout 2026 and why the shipping market continues to fluctuate at elevated levels.
About Us
Shenzhen Huayangda International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd.
Founded in 2011, Huayangda has 14 years of logistics expertise, with an overseas Chinese team ensuring seamless coordination. We continuously upgrade logistics channels and maintain long-term collaborations with platforms like Amazon and Walmart.
Headquartered in Bantian, Shenzhen, we’ve evolved from traditional to cross-border logistics, offering transparent services, competitive pricing, and end-to-end solutions—from quoting, booking, customs clearance, and insurance to last-mile delivery—across the US, Canada, and UK.
Mission: Empowering global trade.
Website: www.hydcn.com
Tagline: For reliable logistics, choose Huayangda.
END
Scan to follow us for more updates
Our main service:
● Sea Ship
● Air Ship
● One Piece Dropshipping From Overseas Warehouse
Welcome to inquire about prices with us:
Contact: ivy@szwayota.com.cn
Whatsapp：+86 13632646894
Phone/Wechat : +86 17898460377
Post time: Aug-19-2026
